El Niño Is Coming: How to Protect Your Monterey Peninsula Home This Winter

Sep 29, 2026 · @Blake Russell

Lately I have been reaching out to all of my friends and clients here on the Monterey Peninsula with one simple question: is your home ready for this winter?

If you have lived in Pacific Grove, Carmel, Pebble Beach or Monterey for a while, you remember the winters of 1997-98 and 2023. The downed cypress limbs. The flooded lower Carmel River neighborhoods. The waves breaking over Ocean View Boulevard. This year, forecasters are watching a very strong El Niño take shape in the Pacific, and I would much rather have these conversations now, in the calm of early fall, than in January with a tarp in hand.

As a real estate advisor, I see what storm damage costs homeowners, both in repairs and in value. As a neighbor, I simply want the people I care about to be safe. So I put together the checklist I have been sharing one on one, and I hope you will use it and pass it along.

What This El Niño Winter Could Mean for the Monterey Peninsula

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now puts the odds of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter above 90 percent, with a real chance it becomes the strongest on record since 1950 (NOAA CPC, September 2026). For coastal California, that tilts the odds toward a wetter than normal winter, with the most active stretch expected from December through March.

A strong El Niño is not a guarantee of a destructive winter. The 2015-16 event was far milder here than many expected. But on our coastline the risk is less about total rainfall and more about a few big atmospheric river storms arriving alongside king tides and large swells. That combination is what topples saturated trees, overwhelms gutters and drains, and pushes water onto coastal roads.

The smart move is to prepare as if it will be a big year, and be pleasantly surprised if it is not.

Your El Niño Home Preparation Checklist

Work through this list in October and November, before the storm track shifts our way.

Roof, gutters and drainage

• Have your roof inspected for loose, cracked or missing shingles and tiles, and repair flashing around chimneys, skylights and vents.
• Clean gutters and downspouts, then clean them again after the first big storm. Cypress and pine needles clog them fast here.
• Extend downspouts so water discharges at least 5 feet from your foundation.
• Clear storm drains and culverts near your property, and walk your yard to confirm water flows away from the house.
• If you have a sump pump, test it now and consider a battery backup.

Trees and wind

• Have a certified arborist assess large trees near your home, especially Monterey pines and cypress. You can find one through the International Society of Arboriculture.
• Check with your city before trimming or removing trees. Pacific Grove, Carmel-by-the-Sea and Monterey all have tree permit rules. Yes, the cities are being more lenient with cutting. Shocking.
• Secure or store patio furniture, umbrellas, planters and anything the wind can turn into a projectile.

Windows, doors and the building envelope

• Re-caulk and weatherstrip windows and doors, and check for water stains that signal existing leaks.
• Inspect decks, railings and exterior stairs for rot before they get soaked.

Flooding and sandbags

• Look up your flood zone on the FEMA Flood Map Service Center.
• Know where to get sandbags. Local fire stations in Monterey, Pacific Grove and Carmel stock sand and bags, and the county keeps a full list on Ready Monterey County. Call ahead and bring a shovel.
• Move valuables, documents and electronics off garage and basement floors.

Insurance and records

• Review your homeowners policy. Standard policies generally do not cover flood damage.
• If you want flood coverage, act now. National Flood Insurance Program policies typically have a 30 day waiting period (FloodSmart) or call you local agent.
• Take a video walkthrough of your home and belongings, and store it in the cloud along with your policy documents.

Power and emergency supplies

• Sign up for Alert Monterey County so you receive local emergency and evacuation alerts.
• Bookmark the PG&E outage center and keep flashlights, batteries and power banks charged.
• Been thinking about a generator, or need to make sure yours is working? Do it now, before demand spikes. Have it serviced and tested under load, store fuel safely, and have a licensed electrician confirm a transfer switch is in place so it cannot backfeed the grid. Never run a generator indoors or in a garage.
• Build a basic kit with water, food, medications and pet supplies for at least three days. Ready.gov has a simple guide.

During the storm

• Follow the National Weather Service Bay Area forecast for storm and high surf warnings.
• Stay off flooded roads and away from the shoreline during high surf. Just six inches of moving water can knock a person down.

Local Notes for Pacific Grove, Carmel, Pebble Beach and Monterey

Pacific Grove. Coastal stretches along Ocean View Boulevard, Asilomar and Lovers Point take the brunt of high surf. Many of our historic Victorians and cottages have older roofs and original drainage, so an inspection pays for itself here. Sandbags are available at the Pacific Grove fire station on Pine Avenue.

Carmel-by-the-Sea and Carmel Valley. The forest canopy that makes Carmel so beautiful is also its biggest storm risk. Properties near the Carmel River and lagoon should review flood coverage and have a plan if evacuation warnings are issued.

Pebble Beach. Large lots with mature pines and long private drives mean fallen trees can cut off access. Talk to your arborist early and consider a generator if you work from home or rely on well or pump systems.

Monterey. Lower lying areas near El Estero and the waterfront can see localized flooding. The City of Monterey Storm Center lists sandbag sites and real time resources.

Let's Make Sure You Are Ready

Preparing a home is a lot like training for a marathon. The work you do quietly in the weeks before is what carries you through race day. A few hours this fall can spare you months of repairs this winter.

If you would like a referral to a trusted roofer, arborist, drainage contractor or insurance professional here on the Peninsula, just reach out. I am always happy to connect you with the people I rely on. And if you are thinking about buying or selling in Pacific Grove, Carmel, Pebble Beach or Monterey, I would love to talk about how the season may shape your plans.

Blake Russell | Blake Russell Realty, Sotheby's International Realty 831.917.9886 | [email protected] | blakerussellrealty.com DRE #02188622